Sprinter Sacre, The Arkle, Cheltenham Tues
Anyone taking a short price regarding the chances of Sprinter Sacre (10/11) must be well aware that the statistics surrounding previous Arkle favourites are not pretty, as Paddy Power announce they will refund all losing bets if Sprinter Sacre wins the Arkle.
Only two jollies have landed the odds for punters in the last 19 runnings of the race with the last four out of five starting at shorter than 2/1 also being turned over.
The Arkle is known to ride more like a 2m3f contest and can despite its minimum distance has the ability to find horses out that don’t have stamina in their make-up. The last six, and nine of the last eleven, Arkle winners had all won or been second at 2m1f or further.
Followers of Al Ferof will be pleased to hear that on most occasions when the favourite has found one or two good the one to take advantage has usually been the horse second in the betting. In fact, 15 of the last 19 winners have come from one of the second, third or fourth favourites. Additionally the November Novices Chase at Cheltenham’s Open meeting, which Al Ferof won earlier this season, has produced three Arkle winners since 2003.
Interestingly, perhaps, is that the last seven Arkle winners had all run four times over fences prior to winning their Arkle, which counts against both the market leaders, who have only had three chase starts each.
This opens the path up for third favourite Cue Card, but his supporters will be well aware that his apparent race tactics may play against him. Trainer Colin Tizzard has gone on record saying the horse will ridden from the front but there has been just one winning front running performance (Azertyiop) since 1980.
For those that like latching onto the highest rated hurdler in the Arkle, Menorah, who was rated 162 over the sticks, could be of interest to you. Five of the last 10 top rated hurdlers in the field won.
Ireland has supplied only three of the last eleven winners but have won two of the last three and they rely on Blackstairmountain this time around.