With increasing speculation about the future of the Catholic Church, bookmakers have once again opened markets on the next pope.
While Pope Francis continues in his role as the 266th pontiff, questions over his health and age have reignited interest in potential successors. The Vatican has made no official statement about any transition, but that has not stopped betting activity from ramping up on various contenders.
Cardinal Peter Turkson of Ghana has emerged as a frontrunner in several betting markets. Seen by many as a progressive voice within the Church, Turkson has long been tipped as a potential history-maker, possibly becoming the first African pope in over 1,500 years. His odds have shortened significantly in recent months, placing him among the leading candidates in both UK and international sportsbooks.
Another popular choice is Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle of the Philippines. His reputation as a humble, media-savvy cleric with strong theological credentials has gained him favour among Catholic analysts. As Asia continues to grow in importance for the Church, Tagle’s background and global outlook make him a serious contender in the eyes of bookmakers and Vatican watchers alike.
Traditionalist figures such as Cardinal Raymond Burke also appear in the betting lists, though his odds are significantly longer. His hardline views have gained him support among more conservative factions within the Church, but his public disagreements with Pope Francis have led many to believe his chances are limited. Meanwhile, Cardinal Christoph Schönborn of Austria and Cardinal Marc Ouellet of Canada also feature as mid-range picks in most markets.
Betting on the next pope remains a niche but closely followed market, often surging in popularity when papal health concerns hit the headlines. Bookmakers typically offer fixed odds on a shortlist of cardinals but may also include novelty bets on wild-card candidates or symbolic outsiders. However, because the conclave is conducted in strict secrecy, these markets are notoriously difficult to predict.
The process of electing a new pope involves a conclave of cardinals who gather in the Sistine Chapel to vote, with a two-thirds majority required to confirm a successor. Political influence, regional representation, and internal Church dynamics all play a role in shaping the outcome, meaning betting odds are based more on speculation than inside information.
As of now, there is no formal indication that Pope Francis intends to step down, but at age 87, the topic is no longer considered taboo. Should a papal resignation or passing occur, the betting markets will likely see an immediate surge in interest. Until then, punters and religious observers alike will continue to study every Vatican signal for hints about who may eventually wear the white cassock.
